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Over the past decade, the biggest constraint in energy development has quietly shifted. It used to be land. Today, it’s the grid.
Across the United States, both generation developers and large load developers face the same constraint: gaining access to the transmission system. Thousands of proposed projects are waiting for approval to connect, with more than 2,300 GW currently sitting in interconnection queues, roughly double the capacity of the existing U.S. power fleet. At the same time, demand from large loads such as data centers and industrial electrification continues to accelerate, placing additional pressure on already constrained grid infrastructure.
Only a small fraction of projects ultimately move forward. Historically, fewer than one in five generation projects that enter the queue reach commercial operation, and large load projects face similar risks when capacity is unavailable or upgrade requirements become cost-prohibitive.
For developers on both sides of the meter, this has fundamentally changed the economics of decision-making. Advancing the wrong project is no longer just inefficient; it can consume years of development time, significant capital, and critical market opportunity with no viable outcome.
In response, leading teams are shifting how projects are sourced and prioritized. Rather than starting with land or load demand and validating grid feasibility later, they begin with the grid, identifying where capacity exists, narrowing to viable interconnection points, and only then committing to site control, infrastructure planning, and engineering investment. This playbook outlines a practical framework for a grid-first approach to development
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